Who is the most tragic figure in the presidential elections? Hazem Abu Ismail is a B-rated horror flick, so no it's not him, and no it's not Abdallah El-Ashal he's a diaper commercial. In my opinion the only truly tragic candidate is Hamdain Sabahy. Sabahy's revolutionary credentials are Gold. He has been in the game of being a thorn in the back of the regime since the 70's when he was an undergrad in Cairo University. He has been part of partisan politics since then, fairly earning a seat in parliament several times under very concentrated rigging efforts. He has always been opposed to the regime, in a consistent and reliable way, and he has seen the inside of prison cells more than once. He supported the January 25th revolution on the 24th (which sets him apart from many other so called revolutionaries). When the MB said it wanted to go through the parliamentary elections as part of a wide coalition, his party joined said coalition. But when it turned out the MB's agenda was basically to screw the rest of the country he immediately said he regretted his decision to join (remorse is a very rare commodity in Egypt).
Sabahy's positions and agenda are unique in how they are so Egyptian. He comes from a Nasserite background, with all the appeal that Nasserism has to older Egyptians and a section of youth. The main platform is pan-Arabism and socialism. However, if you hear him speak, he adds a critical modern twist to Nasserism that address its disastrous problems. For example the brand of socialism he advocates is more akin to Western European socialism than Nasser's view; Sabahy is an ardent supporter of political pluralism (as opposed to Nasserite authoritarianism); and his brand of pan-Arabism does not advocate any rash decisions, or any form of belligerence. He is the perfect candidate for a large section of Egyptian society, he embraces the social and cultural liberalism of Nasser's era that many Egyptians yearn for, he wants a market economy but one with tame capitalism, he wants good relations with all countries but he wants them based on equality, he is essentially non-sectarian, and he has presidential hair. He is essentially a centrist on all issues, which is what "common wisdom" claims Egypt always seeks.
But Sabahy has exactly ZERO chance of winning the elections. He is the victim of inertia and Egypt's juvenile polling practices. Sabahy has a voting base that should clearly win him the elections. However, this base is split firmly between two camps based entirely on the self-fulfilling prophecy that he has no chance of winning. On the one hand, I am absolutely certain a sizable percentage of Abulfotooh supporters are in reality Sabahy supporters but they are voting for Abulfotooh because Sabahy has no chance of winning and they think it is essential that a "revolutionary" candidate wins. On the other hand many Shafiq and especially Moussa supporters are closer to Sabahy. But they are not voting for him because he has no chance of winning and they think it is essential that a non-Islamist win the elections. This lack of inertia (and possibly the blow-dried hair) will introduce one of the many ironies of the Egyptian elections: The most popular candidate/The candidate with a position closest to the people has no chance of winning!!
Sabahy's positions and agenda are unique in how they are so Egyptian. He comes from a Nasserite background, with all the appeal that Nasserism has to older Egyptians and a section of youth. The main platform is pan-Arabism and socialism. However, if you hear him speak, he adds a critical modern twist to Nasserism that address its disastrous problems. For example the brand of socialism he advocates is more akin to Western European socialism than Nasser's view; Sabahy is an ardent supporter of political pluralism (as opposed to Nasserite authoritarianism); and his brand of pan-Arabism does not advocate any rash decisions, or any form of belligerence. He is the perfect candidate for a large section of Egyptian society, he embraces the social and cultural liberalism of Nasser's era that many Egyptians yearn for, he wants a market economy but one with tame capitalism, he wants good relations with all countries but he wants them based on equality, he is essentially non-sectarian, and he has presidential hair. He is essentially a centrist on all issues, which is what "common wisdom" claims Egypt always seeks.
But Sabahy has exactly ZERO chance of winning the elections. He is the victim of inertia and Egypt's juvenile polling practices. Sabahy has a voting base that should clearly win him the elections. However, this base is split firmly between two camps based entirely on the self-fulfilling prophecy that he has no chance of winning. On the one hand, I am absolutely certain a sizable percentage of Abulfotooh supporters are in reality Sabahy supporters but they are voting for Abulfotooh because Sabahy has no chance of winning and they think it is essential that a "revolutionary" candidate wins. On the other hand many Shafiq and especially Moussa supporters are closer to Sabahy. But they are not voting for him because he has no chance of winning and they think it is essential that a non-Islamist win the elections. This lack of inertia (and possibly the blow-dried hair) will introduce one of the many ironies of the Egyptian elections: The most popular candidate/The candidate with a position closest to the people has no chance of winning!!
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